You may be looking forward to the year 2020 and its Presidential election in the United States, but the bank J.P.Morgan Chase warns that a new financial crisis could be happening this same year. Since the 2008 crisis, severe rules in the financial sector have been applied to get the stability back. It implied a low purchasing power for the American population. However, in May, the House of Representatives has passed a law to loosen regulations on the access to mortgage and student loans. It encourages Americans to buy on credit or to take on a debt to be able to study in a prestigious University. The Federal Reserve Bank (FED) of New York has stated in its last report, that the American household debt has exceeded 13 trillion dollars in September 2018. The real estate debt represents 9 trillion dollars against 1.13 trillion for the automobile and 1.53 trillion for the study loans debt. The risk of these bubbles bursting is currently quite low. However, any recession could reverse the trend. J.P.Morgan Chase also states that the rise of the US interest rate could create a large disinterest of the investors for financial stock and would trigger a crisis. The protectionist policy of President Trump increases the atmosphere of uncertainty. It creates commercial tensions between different countries, such as China, has consequences on the accessibility and the price of the products. The food security could be threatened, which would challenge the access to enough healthy food to live an active life for a part of the population of the United States. For the founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio, the current measures may not be sufficient to avoid a financial crash as severe as the 1929 one. It would imply a period of recession and could have economic, but also political and societal repercussions all around the world. Franklin D. Roosevelt once said « there must be a strict supervision of all banking and credits and investments, so that there will be an end to speculation with other people's money; and there must be provision for an adequate but sound currency. » but it seems like his words have long since been forgotten. AuteurCécile Frenoy
0 Commentaires
Laisser une réponse. |